The Basin Plan is a Commonwealth instrument delivered almost entirely through state systems: entitlements are issued by states, held on state registers, traded under state approval, and delivered through state-operated infrastructure. The Authority plans and accounts; it does not issue a licence to anybody.

The number worth watching is the run rate. The Water Amendment (Restoring Our Rivers) Act 2023 requires 450 GL of additional environmental water by 31 December 2027, with water infrastructure projects delivered by 31 December 2026. Published progress has the Commonwealth at almost half of the 450 GL as at March 2026.

Half, with about twenty-one months to run. That is not a prediction of failure — the Act deliberately widened the available methods to include on-farm and off-farm efficiency projects, voluntary buybacks and land and water packages, and buyback can move volume quickly when the government is willing to pay. It is an observation that the remaining half has to arrive faster than the first half did.

This database records run rates because it has now found the same shape three times: 1,432 of 40,000 social homes, 300 of 2,700 remote houses, and here. A target, a deadline, a published cumulative figure, and no published statement of the rate required to meet it.